Part three: Analysis.
Part 1,
Part 2.
Tobikera wrote:dakky21 wrote:The other possibility is that you are the bus driver and you bussed someone else's action onto Blacky, but I don't think that happened. From what you wrote I think you tried to poison someone and got bussed.
You're confused, dakky. If I had tried to poison someone, regardless of the outcome, the mod would not comeback and tell me that my target, intentional or misdirected, needed a healer within 24 hours to live. He (they) would simply say nothing, and let me read the N1 results, or tell me I got misdirected, or something else, but there wouldn't be anything about the conditions necessary for blacky to survive. It appears that blacky wasn't told anything by the mod other than he was poisoned and needed help within 24 hours. He assumed he needed to find a doctor or a healer, and I was assuring him, assuming he had a town role (which might not be correct), that a healer was present in the game. Doesn't pay to be a nice guy, I guess.
Tobikera wrote:ZaBeast wrote:Also I was thinking about it and I don't see why tobi would have a healer mentioned in his role pm given the role he claimed. Am I missing something?
Quite simple really. The mod said that if my next target prey is a healer, I become one for one night in the future. So, if my prey is a food fish, I get to eat, and if my prey is a healer, I get to heal. That's all I know.
It is my understanding that
only poisoners are told explicitly about
healer(s) existing in this game, while the Healer roles themselves merely know that their own role contains the word as part of their Night Action Role. It should be partially verifiable through the three living players who claim to have been poisoned at one point or another, that they are not told this word, currently the evidence for that is:
blacky365 wrote:the exact words are... "Without intervening medical attention, you will not last past night 2"
and I have strong evidence to suggest that at least one non-poisoner was told only about the existence of a "Medic" when referring to the roles known as "Healer".
Ragian was the first to
use the exact word healer, and it seems as though (should we trust jfm10 as a source) our other claimed poisoner was also
told about a healer.
Ragian wrote:I'm sorry to add to the weirdness, but my night result (not telling you whether I performed any night action or went for food) pm reveals the existence of a healer. Surely, jmf must have gotten a similar pm with his night results. I seem to recall Tobi saying that he heard of a healer, too.
Would I be correct to assume based off of this, that you only learnt about a Healer as feedback from you having poisoned somebody on the first night? -Either directly, a "you have poisoned somebody, they need a Healer to survive" type thing; or indirectly in much the same manner as jfm10, via implicit confirmation that you had successfully poisoned somebody, and so were being told your Bonus Ability in accordance with a successful night action.
—
Tobikera wrote:On the way to finding my prey, I got bumped, but then kept going until I found my prey....whatever that implies. There was no indication that my action was successful, which to me implies that my target did not him/herself take any action last night.
I take it that there was indication of the action being successful on the other two nights as Tobikera seemed a lot more certain on those occasions, meanwhile ZaBeast was also certain that the Redirection of Tobikera to TX AG 90 was successful. At first I thought this was a clear sign that one of the people involved was lying about their action on Night 2, however with TX AG 90 self-targeting that night it makes sense that one's vision becoming blurred would not impede the ability to target oneself. This leads me to BuJaber, chapcrap, or some third as yet unknown role becoming implicated however:
BuJaber wrote:I'm saying that with Metsfan dead I now have proof that I WAS misdirected.
what was left out here was of course the possibility of Metsfanmax having been bussed that night, however this either contradicts chapcrap who claims to have
looked for food or suggests involvement of an additional role. Then there is this to consider:
BuJaber wrote:Pikanchion wrote:Pikanchion wrote:BuJaber did your PM N2 contain more information than the version myself and aage recieved? From my end it does not look like you were misdirected... Ours was three lines of text for the night ability, followed by the five lines of the bonus ability.
BuJaber wrote:I got 2 lines of text.
Do you mean two in addition to the three I refer to or that you received only two that were not part of the bonus ability?
I mean I got only 2 lines of text, followed by the bonus ability description.
I cannot make sense of this without you having lied
here, can you prove that is not the case somehow?
—
Something I am suspicious of is self-denigrating breadcrumbing, i.e. suggesting your own role or part of it is scummy prior to claiming it:
Tobikera wrote:No one really responded with any interest to my previous posts, although I was misquoted once. This made me a bit hesitant to post more than I have. Why waste the effort? I think everyone needs to go back an re-read the initial scene. I think, and correct me if I am wrong, it is important to see that the freshwater critters (fish, etc.) that were washed into the lagoon and onto the reef are the prey for dark, shadowy forces coming from the sea. Symbolically, that implies that these freshwater beasts are most likely town, and the dark, shadowy beasts are most likely mafia scum. I suspect, when this is all over, that mafia scum are represented by top marine (saltwater) carnivores. This is a tokle game, so it could be that the initial scene is a massive misdirection ploy, and I'm sadly misled. But, if I am right, then this is an initial template for solving the game and defeating the mafia. Of course, if pressed by lynch votes, the mafia scum aren't going to admit to being a hammerhead shark, or squid, or even a seal or penguin, all of whom are carnivorous (esp. on fish). But, in an effort to avoid suspicion, if pressed, one of them might choose a freshwater fish that someone else already has as an identity, Then we can act. So, let's begin by agreeing on someone to press to L-2.
P.S. The once curious thing in the initial scenario was the demise of the sailfish. A sailfish, which you never find around a reef (it's an open ocean feeder on the surface and mid-depths; good initial summary of sailfish here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sailfish) is a carnivore, but certainly not the ominous shadowy beasts portrayed by a killer whale, or a giant squid, or a white shark, i.e., not a top carnivore. I still don't have my head around that tidbit, other than to emphasize that the reef is a dangerous place to be for all potential prey, freshwater or saltwater.
Tobikera wrote:I said sailfish were carnivores, but they are not top carnivores, more like primary consumers in the fish world of things. Top carnivores will be like hammerhead sharks, giant squid, killer whales, etc. Any bets that those will be the identities of the mafia players at the end of the game?
Tobikera wrote:Concerning the notion espoused earlier that this game could represent marine vs freshwater fish (which I even suggested very early in the game in a way, but then demurred), I would note that I am a squid (an invertebrate in the Phylum Cephalpoda, Class Mollusca, and def. marine and town) and Pershy was a leech (was it marine? Can't remember), and as shown town. The only fish we know about so far, correct me if I am wrong, is jfm's freshwater angel fish. Anyway, as I recall someone else canned the marine vs freshwater fish angle, and I just wanted to hold up the honor or us invertebrates.
What reason would you have to do this?
—
Similarly:
TX AG 90 wrote:I'm also pretty sure there is a scum poison healer. How else would they be able to counter a poisoning from jfm?
TX AG 90 wrote:There were several discussions after N1 on whether there were multiple poisoners. People kept saying that if someone else was poisoned, wouldn’t they have revealed themselves and asked for help and I kept saying there are other reasons possible. I wanted people to speculate and maybe trip-up scum. I KNEW someone else was poisoned, but couldn’t reveal it at the time and here is why.
I was poisoned N1. So why, didn’t I reveal myself. Simple, I am the Town Priest and have the ability to either Protect someone during the night OR Heal them from poison.
Also, since I am the TOWN Priest and SW’s claimed abilities are almost exactly like mine, I doubt he is town also. Too much redundancy. THIS IS MY MAIN REASON FOR THINKING THEY ARE SCUM.
I still don’t buy blacky’s explanation about the “bump” or “no bump” lie he was caught in.
Now, regarding the latter of these, I and (presumably) strike wolf also, can at least verify that TX AG 90 knows the
successful healing feedback. I also know that blacky365 was not lying about being poisoned, and that
somebody healed blacky365 on night 2.
This quote becomes very interesting given the above:
blacky365 wrote:N2 - I was unable to preform a night action as I was suffering from the after effects of the poisoning
Either blacky365 lied here, TX AG 90 lied about being poisoned and actually healed somebody else, or there is/was a poisoner who also roleblocks rather than that being a general feature of poison. Combining this with the wording blacky365
eventually provided regarding how they were poisoned, it
sounds as though this poisoner was Ragian. This secondary roleblock feature of Ragian's poison would also explain: Metsfanmax (
whose description of the poisoning matches blacky365's) appearing not to have been able to silence anybody on Night 3; why the roleblock that goes with the poisoning is delayed a night; and Ragian being told he was bumped into on both of the first two nights (although not why he was unable to get food without the rest of us being notified).
